What happens in the next few months really matters. Plenty of rain could cushion the situation and avoid the worst. But Europe needs a lot. “We’re talking about the ocean, the volume of the ocean,” said Hannah Cloke of the University of Reading in the UK. She estimates that, in terms of rainfall, the continent will need hundreds of millions of cubic liters of rain to fill the gap. Above-average rainfall must be expected in France and certain other places, including parts of the UK. Unfortunately, this possibility is not high.
The Met Office estimates that March, April and May have a 10% chance of being wetter than average. Instead, there is a 30 percent chance that this time will be drier than average, which is 1.5 times the normal likelihood for this time of year. The Met Office stressed that it was a “broad outlook” and even if the overall dryness remained, there could still be some very wet weather.
Any rain that does fall must also fall in the right way and in the right place. “If we do get it all done in two days, there’s always the possibility that we’re going to see some really bad flooding,” Cloke said. “What we want is for the next couple of months Seeing consistent, fairly mild rainfall.”
Another big factor is how hot it will be this summer, Cammalleri said. Heat waves increase water consumption and increase evaporation rates. He noted that forecasts for Europe do not suggest temperatures will be as scorching as last year – although there is some uncertainty there as well.
Because the possibility of a drought this year cannot be ignored — to put it mildly — experts interviewed by WIRED recommend preparing now to avoid the worst effects of a dry summer. Reducing water use is an obvious but vital step. France is far from the only place where spending restrictions have been imposed. In Britain, a hose ban introduced last summer lasted through winter in parts of south-west Cornwall and neighboring Devon.
In Catalonia, in northeastern Spain, new water restrictions have just been imposed – farms must use 40% less water and industry 15%. Cleaning the streets with potable water is no longer allowed. In Switzerland, some local authorities are distributing leaflets asking residents not to waste water. “We should prepare for the worst,” Kumar said.
In recent years, several countries, including Switzerland, have tried to protect their water sources by covering glaciers and mountain snow with huge sun-reflecting films. That might work on a small scale, suggests Manuela Brunner of ETH Zurich and the Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research in Davos, Switzerland, but it may not be a sustainable option when it comes to securing water for millions of people.
Looking to the medium to long term, Brunner believes we are witnessing a shift in awareness of drought in Europe, with Switzerland, for example, on the cusp of establishing a national drought detection and notification system. “It’s a big step from not talking about drought warnings to having a national drought warning platform,” she said. The service will be operational in 2025.
Countries also need to rein in leaky pipes – where about a quarter of Europe’s drinking water is lost. We may soon be drinking more recycled wastewater, too. Researchers in Barcelona recently assessed the safety of wastewater that would normally be pumped into the sea. In a paper published this month, they explain that after chemical treatment and dilution, the water appears to be safe for human consumption. They suggest doing so could help keep Barcelona watered during a severe drought.
Big changes are inevitable, says Cammalleri: “Adapting to this type of drought can’t really be solved by short-term action.” Although man-made climate change isn’t the only factor behind Europe’s ongoing drought—natural variations in water levels also play a role— But rising heat every summer will make things worse. Brenner’s advice on this can be summed up in just three words: “Stop climate change.”
